MyDD :: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton

Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton

by fladem, Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 10:53:53 AM EST

The last two days have seen clear evidence that the race has broken for Clinton in Ohio. Here are the latest polls I have seen and the margin:

Pollster	Dates	Clinton	Obama	Shift from Prior Poll if recent
Survey USA	March 1-2	54	44	Clinton +4
Rassmussen	March 2	50	44	Clinton +4
Suffolk	March 1 -2	52	40	N/A
PPD	March 1 -2	51	42	Clinton +5
Univ of Cinc - Ohio Poll	Feb 28 - March 2	52	41	N/A
Quinnipiac	Feb 27 - March 2	49	45	N/A
Zogby	Feb 29 - March 1	45	47	Obama +3
ARG	Feb 29 - March 1	51	44	NA
Mason Dixon	Feb 29 - March 1	47	43	NA

If you throw out Zogby the average is 50.75 Clinton 42.875 Obama. Please note the table has been updated to reflect the PPD poll that just came out

Now why does Zogby look wrong? Zogby has Clinton up only 51-42 among woman, a much smaller margin than the other polls have. The Suffolk Poll has problems too (not nearly enough African Americans are included). On the whole, though, the more recent the poll, the bigger the lead for Clinton. I would not be surprised to see Clinton win between 10 - 13 points. Texas is a whole other story...

Tags: Ohio (all tags)

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Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

"Broken for Clinton"? Seriously? Look at the historical numbers over the last few weeks. Her support has constantly ERODED. She may still win but the polls certainly don't show people "breaking" for Clinton. She just managed to staunch the flow.

"There's something horrible and undefeatable about people who have no life except the worship of power. People who don't want the meeting to end."

by campaignmonitor on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 10:56:50 AM EST

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

Here is my view of the race in Ohio:

2 weeks ago, Clinton led by 20. A week ago, I think Clinton led by at the most 5, and on Thursday/Friday it may closed even more.

But there is clear evidence of movement over the weekend to Clinton.

by fladem on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:00:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

It depends on how long of a timeframe you want to look at. Clearly, Clinton's support from a month ago has eroded. However, most evidence points to a break back towards her of a couple points this weekend.

However, she needs to win this by 15-20 points to have any hope of bridging the delegate gap, and that still seems unlikely. If she doesn't come out with at least a net +10-15 delegates in total tomorrow, that should be the end of the line for her. With the structural disadvantage she faces in TX, I doubt that is going to happen.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:41:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

I would have to agree. "Broken" is not the right word. Clinton is clinging to a diminishing lead in Ohio. I think she'll squeak out a win in Ohio, and lose in Texas, which puts the nomination out of her reach.

"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton

by fugazi on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 12:06:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

Mason Dixon has a poll showing the same results for the same time frame as Survey USA, Quinnipiac, and Rasmussen: Clinton up four. Four out of Five polls ending March 2 say Clinton up four. Since when is up four with a large portion undecided considered a clear break?

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 10:59:37 AM EST

I left Suffolk (none / 0)

off my table. I have now updated.

Of the last 7 polls, three have Clinton's lead over 9, and another has it at 7. You are write about the MD poll, but it was concluded earlier and didn't catch what I think was movement to Clinton over the weekend.

by fladem on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:07:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby has its own wierdness (none / 0)

if you exclude Suffolk and Zogby, the average is Clinton 50.57, Obama 43.3.

Doesn't make a whole lot of difference.

by fladem on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

I expect another Massachusetts scenario to play out, where even though Clinton wins by a wide margin, somehow it will be spun as bad news for her because historically she was once leading by an even wider margin.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:07:40 AM EST

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

But I will be quite satisfied if she trounces Obama by a fifteen point margin in Ohio.

by truthteller2007 on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:16:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

where is the link to the survey usa poll , its not in the site

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:39:45 AM EST

Re: Ohio has clearly broken for Clinton (none / 0)

Let's face it, Zogby has been greatly discredited this cycle. Deservedly.

by Bob Johnson on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:48:53 AM EST