MyDD :: The Democratic Party is NOT Split

The Democratic Party is NOT Split

by fladem, Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:38:08 AM EST

To read the pundit press and blogsphere is be told that the Democratic Party is severely split, and that Clinton supporters are on the verge of leaving the party. In fact, Clinton supporters themselves in blogsphere are repeating this. See for example BTD's post this morning on Talk Left.

But is this true?

No, it isn't. T The table below compares Obama's performance among Democrats in the most recent CBS CBS poll poll taken during the summer in 2004, 2000 and 1996. This poll is almost identical the most recent Rasmussen poll.

	1996	2000	2004	2008
For Democrat	90	73	87	80
For GOP	6	17	9	12
Net Dem Advantage	84	56	78	68

Here is the key point: at this point Obama runs better than Gore did among Democrats, and pretty to close to where Kerry did. But at this point in the cycle Kerry and Gore had had months to consolidate the party. Obama has just completing a tough primary season: and is almost exactly where they were. We have to stop buying into the Democrats are not united frame. IT ISN"T TRUE!!!

Even more importantly, though, Rassmussen found that the Democratic Party is bigger than it was in 2004. Democrats now lead in Party ID 41.7 to 31.6 (versus 1.6% advantage on election day 2004).

I would expect that Obama will improve his numbers among Democrats over the next few days, but his current position among Democrats is strong.

Finally, let me once again observe how rarely people who write about politics both to check political history.

Tags: Unity (all tags)

Permalink :: 20 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (2.00 / 1)

We are democrats, we are strong, we are one. We are going to kick McBushes butt.

by Spanky on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:45:12 AM EST

Rec this one up, Democrats! (none / 0)

by ReillyDiefenbach on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:03:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (none / 0)

Gore lost.

Kerry lost.

So is this a predictor of strength or a predictor that Obama will lose too?

"No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a party that ignores her." - Susan B. Anthony

by feelfree on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:46:08 AM EST

The lost because of their performance (none / 0)

among independents, not Democrats.

by fladem on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The lost because of their performance (none / 0)

Yes, but he's splitting those with McCain.

Is there evidence he is winning the majority of the Independent vote?

"No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a party that ignores her." - Susan B. Anthony

by feelfree on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:52:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

CBS has him leading McCain (none / 0)

in the overall race by 6, 48-42, despite losing independents by 8, 46-38.

His lead in the CBS poll is due to his strength among Democrats and the overall Democratic advantage in party over the GOP.

by fladem on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (none / 0)

oops, lost should be loss.

"No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a party that ignores her." - Susan B. Anthony

by feelfree on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:48:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (2.00 / 1)

Huh? Party ID is up. That means there are more Dems. So it wouldn't be a predictor that Obama would lose too if it was that simple. But it's not that simple. But as independent ID is up a little (and Obama runs well with indy voters) and GOP ID has fallen (and McSame may actually lose some GOP voters with his flip-flopping and flailing towards the center while not gaining back the moderates he lost with his sucking off of the right) it's a better landscape then the other races.

The plural of anecdote is not data.

by LiberalDebunker on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:50:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (none / 0)

And McCain is not doing much better with Republicans than Obama is with Democrats. Furthermore, he has a harder task. Republicans who are the 28% of Americans who support Bush won't like it if he distances himself from Bush. But McCain has to do that to win independents.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (none / 0)

Thanks for the context. It's essential.

You can't know what a number means (say 80% support from Dems) without a comparator.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:00:10 PM EST

The Democratic Party is NOT Split (none / 0)

The split would be 2% of Democrats who are bitter Hillary diehards who would cut of their nose to spite their face. We will and are taking up a lot more than the slack with independents, moderates,and wonder of wonders, evangelicals. Every single one of you knows a bunch of republicans who are voting Obama or at least strongly considering it.
This is our year, Democrats!

by ReillyDiefenbach on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:02:16 PM EST

I would not attribute this to Hillary supporters (none / 0)

necessarily. Most of the 12 percent probably haven't voted for a Democrat in years in National elections (even Clinton lost 6%). As you say, the percentage of Democrats who are leaving because of Clinton is small.

by fladem on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:16:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

disaffected supporters of losing candidates... (2.00 / 1)

is already factored in. some will vote for the other party (a strategic vote, generally, in the hope that their candidate will do better next time), but most will just not vote in this election (or vote an inconsequential third party).

the advantage that barack has in this situation is that his campaign is committed to mobilizing new voters (of all ages), something that pretty much compensates for all the disaffecteds. we really need to stop fretting about the hillary supporters right now and go after all the undecideds, marginal voters and the new voters we registered. those segments are a lot bigger than all the votes hillary got. in spades...

"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton

by bored now on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:20:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dead right as always (none / 0)

but there are some who want to emphasize the split in order to increase their influence.

But there is no there there, and the Obama are certainly smart enough to know that.

by fladem on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:23:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Democratic Party is NOT Split (none / 0)

BTD on talk left has a point , if he picks a VP and its not Clinton , the split would be more apparent.

Its not a coincidence that prominent supporters of her's and in the party are saying he should pick her.

She has signalled publicly that she is interested and if he doesn't pick her , it would be a headache for him.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:28:19 PM EST

On what evidence do (none / 0)

you say that?

Franly I see none. Does Obama need to reach out to Clinton supporters?

Absolutely.

But BTD is basing his comments on no real evidence.

by fladem on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:48:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

to me the issue is not (none / 0)

primarily about getting Clinton supporters to vote for Obama, because most of them will come home.

However, many of them are very angry at him and his supporters, and they are not going to get involved with GOTV and other aspects of his campaign.

Now maybe he doesn't need their activism to win, but I would think that getting all hands on deck would be helpful for Obama.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Mon Jun 09, 2008 at 12:49:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good diary drew nt (none / 0)

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:40:32 PM EST

Sorry (none / 0)

wrong diary, right thoughts, good diary fladem.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:41:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Glass is 1/2-full. Glass is 1/2-empty. (2.00 / 1)

Stop telling me this!

Fill the freakin' glass!

It's up to Obama and his supporters to make a sincere effort to mollify and truly regain all of HRC's base.

It's up to HRC's base to get over their and see that there's a bigger and better good that all Dems should support.

I, personally, see myself in the second group. And, I'm over her loss for very practical reasons, IMHO. Others are not. Far from it.

As for Obama's supporters, if something isn't done soon at places like DKos, I will come to the conclusion--as will many others--that there's a significant subset of Obama's base that's engaged in little more than gross, unacceptable Hillary hate, and it will continue to effect just enough in the party to run the risk of undermining Obama's chances in the GE.

I've been reading a lot over at DKos--not commenting in the past couple of days just lurking--and it's still quite pathetic over there. Extremely so! The Hillary hate is as disaffecting as it's ever been, despite claims to the contrary.

by bobswern on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 03:05:03 PM EST

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